Ground beef is running $6.75 a pound, up nearly 13 percent from a year ago. Steak prices averaged $12.80 a pound, up 16 percent. The US cattle herd is now the smallest it has been since the 1950s, when the country had half as many mouths to feed. This is not a supply hiccup that clears in a quarter. It is a multi-year herd rebuild problem.

Then came screwworm. The flesh-eating parasite has now been confirmed at more than 30 sites across Texas, triggering movement restrictions in 21 counties and shutting southern ports of entry to livestock trade. The USDA estimates the outbreak alone could do $1.8 billion in damage to the Texas economy. Every rancher managing it is adding labor, vet bills, and monitoring costs to their own operation, and none of that cost stays with the rancher.

The American Farm Bureau's read is blunt: meaningful price relief is unlikely before 2028. If beef carries a chunk of your menu, you are not weathering a rough stretch. You are operating inside a new cost floor that is going to hold for a while.

What This Means For You:

Pull your menu mix report this week and flag every dish where beef is the primary cost driver. You do not need to cut your burger. You do need to look hard at portion sizes, pricing, and whether a chicken or plant-based version of your best seller could take pressure off that item without losing the guest. If you have not locked in supplier pricing agreements, do it now. The trend line only points one direction through 2027.

Read the beef costs and screwworm story →

Total restaurant operating expenses are up 36 percent since before the pandemic. That is not one bad line item. Average hourly wages are up 41 percent. Wholesale food prices are up 35 percent. Utilities, occupancy, supplies, and swipe fees have all posted double-digit increases since 2019 too.

Here is the number that should stop you mid-scroll: if a pre-pandemic independent restaurant ran a typical 5 percent pretax margin, that same restaurant today is sitting on a pretax loss of nearly 29 percent of sales unless something changed. To match 2019 profitability, sales need to run 29 percent above 2019 levels on volume alone, with every other input held flat.

That math is exactly why 42 percent of operators reported they were not profitable last year. It is not one bad decision or one slow season. It is six years of cost increases stacking on top of each other while menu prices tried, and mostly failed, to keep pace.

What This Means For You:

Do not stop at food and labor. Pull every line on your P&L, including insurance, utilities, and card processing, and find the ones that crept up without you ever renegotiating. Swipe fees alone are worth a call to your processor this month. If you have not repriced your menu in the last two quarters, you are almost certainly under-pricing relative to your real cost structure.

Read the full operating expenses breakdown →

About 18 percent of American adults are now on a GLP-1 drug like Ozempic or Zepbound, up from roughly 14 percent a year ago. The early fear was that appetite-suppressing medication would empty dining rooms. The data says something more specific: GLP-1 users actually visit restaurants more often than non-users, averaging 7.6 visits a week versus 5.1, but they eat differently once they sit down.

They are eating roughly 21 percent fewer calories and spending nearly a third less per visit. They gravitate toward smaller portions, higher protein, and more vegetables. Dinner traffic, especially at fast-food style concepts, has taken the biggest hit. Breakfast is soft too, particularly among higher-income GLP-1 users.

This is not a niche trend anymore. Projections put GLP-1 usage at 30 million Americans by 2030, up from 10 million this year. If your menu has not adjusted, your guest base already has.

What This Means For You:

You do not need to overhaul your menu, but you need a few high-protein, smaller-portion options that do not feel like a diet plate. Think shareable proteins, a fairly priced half-size entree, and vegetable-forward sides that are not an afterthought. A guest ordering less food is still a guest. Give them a reason to say yes to something instead of ordering an appetizer and calling it a meal.

Read the GLP-1 dining behavior survey →

• The labor cost panic is easing, but do not stand down. 77% of operators reported labor costs increased in H1 2026, down from 93% at the start of the year, and only 61% expect further increases the rest of the year, the lowest forward-looking number in three years of survey data. Recruiting and retaining staff is still the single biggest challenge operators name. Restaurant365 mid-year report →
• The James Beard Foundation's 2026 Independent Restaurant Industry Report is out, and the headline is cautious optimism. Independent operators are protecting margins by investing in retention beyond wages, being selective about AI and tech spend, and leaning on community connection instead of discounting. Worth the read if you want to know what your peers are doing differently. Read the report →
• 60% of operators said they needed outside capital to cover operating costs or fund expansion last year. SBA-backed loans are running 8 to 12% right now, and operators who shop at least three lenders save an average of 18% on total borrowing cost. If you are financing equipment or a buildout this year, get more than one quote before you sign anything. Restaurant loan rate roundup →