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“Guacamole got 89% more expensive, your card processor found a new way to keep the difference, and a bag of lettuce just triggered lawsuits in four states. Somehow the government is the one giving servers a break this week.”

89%

AVOCADO PRICE JUMP, SIX MONTHS

Median price is now $3.00 a pound after two Mexican suppliers declared force majeure.

0.1%

INTERCHANGE RATE RELIEF FROM THE $38B SETTLEMENT

Swipe fees are up more than 80% since the pandemic. This barely dents it.

3.5%

USDA'S 2026 FORECAST FOR FOOD-AWAY-FROM-HOME PRICES

Published July 24. Fresh vegetables alone are forecast to climb 6.8%.


A federal judge gave preliminary approval to a $38 billion settlement ending a decades-long antitrust fight over Visa and Mastercard interchange fees. It sounds like a win. Read the fine print and the actual relief is an average interchange reduction of 0.1 percentage points, phased in over five years.

The National Restaurant Association's chief advocacy officer did not mince words, calling it a settlement that "does little to address the problem" and offers no "true relief to the small business restaurant owners who are struggling to manage swipe fees that have gone up more than 80% since the pandemic." The average card processing rate has climbed from 2.02% in 2010 to 2.36% today. A 0.1 point cut spread over five years does not touch that trend line.

States are moving faster than the courts. Illinois now prohibits interchange fees on the tax and tip portion of a transaction, and Colorado passed a similar bill this year. If your state has not acted yet, this is the fight worth watching, because it is the one actually capable of moving your bottom line.

What This Means For You:

Do not wait on the settlement to save you money, it will not. Pull your last three processing statements and check your effective rate against the 2.36% national average. If you are paying more, call your processor and negotiate or shop a flat-rate competitor. Then check whether your state prohibits interchange fees on tax and tip. If not, that is a call worth making to your state restaurant association.

Read the swipe fee settlement breakdown →


The median avocado price is now $3.00 a pound, up 89% over six months and 22% year over year. Two major suppliers, Mission Produce and Westfalia Fruit, declared force majeure in late May after Mexican shipments tightened across every size category at once, which made substitution nearly impossible for distributors trying to keep retailers and restaurants stocked.

This is a supply squeeze from inspection slowdowns and trucking delays at the border, not a permanent collapse. The USDA is forecasting a 3% increase in Mexican production for the 2026-27 season, which is a genuine signal that the structural picture is not deteriorating. That said, relief is a season away, not a week away.

It is also not an isolated ingredient problem. The USDA's July 24 food price outlook forecasts fresh vegetables climbing 6.8% this year, with lettuce and tomatoes leading the increase. If your menu leans on fresh produce, avocado is just the ingredient making headlines first.

What This Means For You:

If avocado is a standing menu item, price it as its own line rather than absorbing the cost into a combo or a flat guac upcharge you set months ago. Consider a smaller default portion with a paid add-on for extra, rather than cutting the item entirely. And do not assume this is a one-ingredient problem, run your top ten produce costs against last quarter's invoices this week so you are not caught flat-footed on the next one.

Read about the avocado supply squeeze →


Federal health officials linked shredded iceberg lettuce to a cyclosporiasis outbreak now tied to more than 4,100 lab-confirmed cases nationally, with thousands more under investigation. Taylor Farms, the supplier at the center of it, issued a voluntary recall of all iceberg lettuce sourced from central Mexico on July 20. Taco Bell had already pulled the product days earlier. Lawsuits followed fast, with at least eight filed against Taco Bell, Taylor Farms, and a franchisee by July 23, covering everything from product liability to deceptive marketing.

The epidemiology here is the real story. As one researcher put it, food production is concentrated enough now that contamination in a single processing facility can turn into a national outbreak overnight. One complaint against Taco Bell specifically alleges the chain designed and controlled the regional supply chain its franchisees were required to buy from, which is a legal theory that will not stay contained to one brand.

Guests are paying attention too. Diners are getting more cautious about pre-cut, pre-bagged greens generally, not just at the chains named in the headlines. That wariness cuts both ways, it is a real risk if your supply chain is not documented, and a real opening if you can credibly say you know exactly where your produce comes from.

What This Means For You:

Pull your produce invoices and confirm you can name the grower, not just the distributor, for anything served raw. If you cannot trace it in one phone call, that is a gap to close now, not after a health department visit. If you buy local or whole-head produce you cut in house, that is a genuine differentiator right now. Say so on the menu or on a table tent. Guests are actively looking for reasons to trust where their salad came from.

Read the full outbreak and lawsuit timeline →


The IRS has issued final regulations for the No Tax on Tips deduction created under last year's tax law, confirming which occupations qualify and exactly what counts as a tip. Qualified tips are cash tips paid voluntarily by the customer. Service charges, mandatory auto-gratuities on large parties, and anything paid digitally through a third party do not count.

The deduction is capped at $25,000 per return and phases out starting at $150,000 of income for single filers, $300,000 for joint filers. New W-2 reporting requirements take effect for 2026, which means your point of sale and payroll provider need to be tracking qualified tips separately from service charges before the year closes, not in January when you are trying to issue W-2s.

Here is the catch most operators are missing. The federal exemption does not automatically apply at the state level. Most states have not passed their own conforming legislation yet, which means tip income can still be fully taxable on your servers' state returns even though it is exempt federally. Your staff will ask you about this. Right now, "it depends on your state" is the accurate answer.

What This Means For You:

Call your payroll provider this week and confirm they can separately report qualified cash tips versus service charges and auto-gratuities on 2026 W-2s. Check whether your state has passed its own conformity law, and if it has not, tell your team plainly that the federal break does not mean their state taxes changed too. Getting ahead of this now saves you a very uncomfortable conversation in late January.

Read the final No Tax on Tips regulations →

  • The World Cup opener pushed QSR orders up 31% and beer sales up 8.8%, according to Square transaction data, with bars and breweries seeing an 8% national bump. Big shared moments still move foot traffic more than almost any promotion you can run. Plan your calendar around the next one instead of reacting to it. MarginEdge's July data roundup →
  • The Restaurant Performance Index hit 101.4 in June, its eighth straight month above the expansion line of 100. But the Expectations Index, which tracks how operators feel about the next six months, fell to its weakest reading in seven months. Sales are holding. Confidence is not. NRA Restaurant Performance Index →
  • Florida's minimum wage climbs to $15 an hour for non-tipped staff in October, with the tipped minimum rising to $11.98. It is the latest step in a scheduled increase, and other states have similar dates on the calendar this fall. If you have not modeled your October labor line yet, now is the time. NRA Economic Insights →
  • July 20, 2026: Beef prices hit a record high as screwworm shut down Texas ports, independents need 29% more sales than 2019 just to break even, GLP-1 users are ordering smaller and spending less, and third-party delivery's true cost runs 30 to 40% of order revenue.
  • July 13, 2026: Ground beef hit a record $6.90/lb, delivery apps' true cost is closer to 40%, a second Hardee's franchisee filed bankruptcy, and 256 independents split $1.28M in grants.
  • July 8, 2026: 42% of operators not profitable, Jersey Mike's IPO economics, drive-thru AI, and 40 independent restaurants win $25K grants.

From the heart of the house:

protein, protein, protein
Protein, Protein, and More Protein

"How many calories?" is no longer the only question many people ask. It is increasingly becoming, "How many grams of protein?" For restaurants, that presents both an opportunity and a challenge.

Jason MolinariJason Molinari
Analyst and Producer, Popcorn GTM
Economics and Business Studies Student at New York University
Connect on Linkedin

 

Being a 19-year-old college student who actively participates in weightlifting, running, and swimming, yet also balances doom-scrolling and social media, I have been repeatedly exposed to the importance of protein over the last three years. Protein has been pushed as a necessity in almost every meal, practically being shoved in your face at every store, restaurant, and even fast-food joints. From the newly introduced Protein Meat Cups at Chipotle to Starbucks' Protein Cold Foam, the word protein is seemingly slapped onto everything, acting as a buzzword for both the health and fitness community and the average consumer. As good as this sounds, however, it begs the question: why? Where did this new "fad" come from, and why is it everywhere? The answer, though it may not come from one place, spreads widely, deriving from a variety of reasons and methods of marketing.

A large portion of the "protein boom" can be attributed to changing consumer priorities. Whether it's simply more people aiming to support their overall health, build muscle, or eat cleaner, protein is necessary in all three situations. I can speak personally on this, as the social media I browse—TikTok, for example—is constantly pushing health, gym, and wellness videos to people around my age, sometimes even younger. This has created a focus on "getting your protein in," as it supports muscle growth, which is, for me at least, the end goal. As large companies and restaurants realized this trend, they began introducing more protein options as a smart way to attract customers with the same goals as mine. This shift has transformed protein from a simple nutrient into a powerful marketing tool. Restaurants, having realized that customers are often willing to pay a premium for extra chicken, steak, or eggs, began incorporating them into all parts of their menu, turning protein into both an investment in a consumer's health and a sneaky way to boost profits.

As good as this all sounds, one might wonder: what are the drawbacks? As with anything, too much protein may have unintended effects. For example, I commonly see videos on social media and other platforms pushing protein consumption, yet I barely see any focusing on other nutrients, such as fiber. Balance is key here, as getting a sufficient amount of protein is just as important as consuming enough of my other vital nutrients. Economically, the "protein boom" also has some drawbacks. At places like Cava, adding an extra protein option increases the price by almost $6, turning a $12 lunch into an $18 meal. For the average consumer, spending $18 every day on lunch is not sustainable, and it adds up quickly. I have fallen victim to this before, thinking that adding extra steak to my Chipotle bowl is necessary for making gains in the gym, but that reasoning wasn't enough to justify the now-$20 bowl I was paying for as a single lunch.

Ultimately, I do not think this protein boom is just another passing trend. Instead, I believe it reflects a shift in how consumers think about the food they eat. "How many calories?" is no longer the only question many people ask. It is increasingly becoming, "How many grams of protein?" For restaurants, that presents both an opportunity and a challenge. High-protein menu items can increase profit and attract health-conscious customers, but they also raise food costs and risk pricing out their average lunch demographic.

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